Van der Schrier et al., 2012

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Monitoring European averaged temperature based on the E-OBS gridded dataset G. van der Schrier, E. J. M van den Besselaar, A. M. G. Klein Tank, and G. Verver (submitted)

Abstract. A European averaged temperature with monthly resolution is constructed based on the E-OBS dataset with near real-time updates for monitoring. The gridded daily maps of surface temperature from the E-OBS dataset provide a record of Europe- an climate variability since 1950 and is based on validated station data provided by the European National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. A quantitative analysis of the uncertainty sources to the European averaged temper- ature indicates that the uncertainties due to urbanization, statistical interpolation and the potential inhomogeneities in the input records to E-OBS dominate the total uncer- tainty estimate. In the aggregation of the interpolation uncertainty from the daily to the monthly level and then to a European averaged value, the effective sample size and the effective spatial degrees of freedom are estimated to account for spatial and temporal coherency in the uncertainty estimates. The European averaged temperature shows that seven years in the top-10 of warmest years are from the period starting as recent as the year 2000 and a clear upward trend in annual averaged temperatures over the last few decades is visible. The most recent year in the top-10 of coldest years is 1987. It also shows that warming in Europe is ac- celerating compared to the warming over the global land masses and to a lesser extent compared to the Northern Hemisphere land masses over the period 1980-2010.